ClickyMarch 27th Abraham/Dirrell OVER 11 ½ -160
Arthur Abraham 31(25) - 0 and Andre Dirrell 18(13) - 1(0) have vastly different fighting styles, but they share a common trait in that they land most of their power punches from exploiting the mistakes of their opponents rather than their own offensive maneuvering. I expect very few extended exchanges of punches between the two and I'd bet the over at any price under -200. With a little line shopping you can get it at slightly less than the -160 price that's available at 5dimes and in Vegas.
Abraham is a phenomenal counterpuncher with power in both arms and a level of toughness that is high even by the lofty standards of professional boxers. To my knowledge he has never been knocked down, and he won a commanding 12 round decision victory against Edison Miranda in 2006 despite breaking his jaw in the 4th. The pace at which Abraham fights can be likened to a thoroughbred or middle distance runner with a strong closing kick. In the opening rounds he throws very few punches, covering up and absorbing most of his opponent's blows with his gloves. As his opponent tires he begins to open up more and is fully out of his shell by the middle rounds. This unique trait leads to many of Abraham's KOs coming very late in the fight... 2 of his last 5 KO victories came with less than 30 seconds remaining in the bout.
Despite being a deserving 2: 1 favorite Abraham has never faced a competent opponent of Dirrell's size. He's fading a 3 inch disadavatage in both height and reach, and will likely face a small weight disadvantage once Dirrell rehydrates after the weigh-in. Dirrell has a good KO rate, but many of those came against boxers with questionable to terrible defense and none of them came against a guy with a chin like Abraham's. If Abraham can be compared to a middle distance runner with kick than Dirrell could be compared to a marathoner because he's likely to spend the whole fight running. He likes to throw jabs, hooks, and even uppercuts while circling from the outside. When the action gets close he gives his opponent a bear hug. Dirrell is likely to land punches of varying effectiveness with this style, but especially considering that this is a home fight for him in which the crowd may be able to bias the judges I don't see Dirrell staying in close to Abraham for any length of time.
So to sum it up for the tldr crowd. I like the over because:
Abraham's iron chin
Abraham's style causes KOs to come late in the fight
Abraham is trying to KO his largest competent opponent
Dirrell will be hard to counterpunch due to his reach advantage and running
Dirrell will hug if Abraham tries to bang inside
Dirrell has incentive to go to the final bell with a home crowd
